Before trying to encapsulate the main ideas of this book in this Overview, I ask that you direct your attention to an exposition about the differences between "Live Systems" and "Dead Systems." These differences are quite consequential in their own right, however, they're presented here only to facilitate your understanding of the structure and operation of progress and prosperity. These differences are followed by an example intended to exemplify almost all of this book's main ideas. The example is a simplified version of the Life Cycle of a company. It portrays the Life Cycle's four stages of development: conception, start-up, growth, and maturity. These four stages should be recognizable in many levels of organized human endeavors, from starting a company or a new product line or, even, just the life cycle of a committee's work or of a project,large or small. This sequence of distinctive Life Cycle stages (conception, start-up, growth, and maturity) was, in fact, the wellspring of the discovery of this endeavor theory.

About any theory, it seems fair to ask, "So what?" The response to this is that this theory lends itself to a process of making the management of endeavors more rationalized. That brings with it all the advantages of rationalization including identification of changing needs, confidence and alignment in analysis, decisions and actions which, together, lead to a fuller realization of ideas. Your endeavor, or any endeavor, can then be evaluated, guided, and executed systematically as never before. You will be given examples in several fields at several scales to guide you and let you test the particulars of both theory and practice. We conclude with the kinds of outcomes you can expect. Then you can decide your own answer to: "Is the climb worth the view?"

Before answering, though, consider this: Progress and prosperity on the grandest scale has been made by collapsing numerous emperical experiences into a single theory. In one sweep, a good theory enables thousands of instances to be abstracted and manipulated systematically, even in concert with other theories, rather than emperically or idiosyncratically. Theory even enables what empericism precludes: extrapolation! Extrapolation beyond experience enables landing on the moon, building a skyscraper, suspension bridge, a "miracle drug," ... and all kinds of weapons of war.    

And, consider that the theories of the Scientific Revolution half a millennium ago formed the foundation of the technological and economic development of the West. Right now, we are, I firmly believe, in the throes of a second wave of theories which will form the foundation of a Biotic¹ Revolution which will become the foundation of a global biotic development from which much, possibly most, will eminate from and benefit the East. As the Scientific Revolution was based on the Scientific Method, so this new revolution will be based on Complexity Theory models and paradigms, of which these writings might even be remembered as an early example. 

It is interesting to note that when the Scientific Revolution was in full swing back in the 18^th Century, its historical significance was barely detected. So it is today with the Biotic Revolution; it's significance may not be appreciated until decades or possibly a century from now. However, with it will come improved understanding and management of our dreams and goals and, quite possibly, the resurgance of the East.  

As the flawed assumptions of planetary motion and mechanics became inadequate and exposed centuries ago, so are the remedies and theories on managing human endeavors buckling under the stresses of modern day realities. The occasionally contradictory, situationally based, and often irrelevent prescriptions eminating from researchers and consultants in the field of management are surely reminiscent of the epicycles used to explain the Earth Centric planetary motion. As in the time of Galileo and Kepler, the world is crying out for some unifying order. Instead, "publish or perish" faculties are bloating curricula and the literature, not with theory, but with situational babble and perverse mathematics that executives have to re-interpret and often ignore and even defy in the discharge of their very real responsibilities. By contrast these writings will reveal a consistent, coherent, template that can be used by you as well as these beleagured executives to be the masters, not alchemists, of endeavors.

Live & Dead Systems  

Let's begin with the distinctions between "Live Systems" (known in Complexity circles as "Biotic Systems") and "Dead Systems." Simply, I define "Live Systems" as those systems that can become greater than they are (only "can," not "will" or "must"). By contrast, "Dead Systems" must become less, with time, than they are as surely as The Second Law of Thermodynamics. ²  "Dead Systems," are the Systems of physical reality: cars, planes, buildings, air, water, electricity... "Dead Systems" are the domain of engineering and because of engineering they have brought us a comfortable life. These two Systems have contrasting behaviors (cars don't behave like people); a Dead paradigm and a Live paradigm, if you like. However, "Dead Systems" in no way invalidate "Live Systems," and visa-versa. They coexist, "Live Systems," in fact, depend on "Dead Systems," but not visa-versa.  

Live Systems, which includes all human endeavors, are only partially predictable, only partially cause/effect, are bounded probabilistically (one way of saying, anything is possible, but most are very improbable), but are capable of elegant adaptations which can self-organize into (what seems or what we intend to be) purposeful behavior. And, lastly, people inside of these Live Systems can interpret and act and respond to interpretations, their own and others, in ways that alter the Live Systems' behavior. But, the cost of effective management is the compromise of the Scientific Method. If you insist on holding firmly to the Scientific Method, then you must forego intelligent management of Live Systems and suffer the consequences of ineffective actions and resulting unnecessary pain. ³

To devise and manage fulfilling and exhilirating "Live Systems" (like a company or an economy), you must give up the need or requirement for reliable predictability, repeatability, and rejection by counter example, along with the possibility of understanding the whole as only the sum of its parts. If you don't, you will devise "Dead Systems" for "Live" circumstances (full of people or companies). Predictable, repeatable, zero-fault tolerant Systems of people are inhumane bureaucracies, or worse, imprisonments. Complex, enlightened, purposeful, Systems with tolerance for exceptions and surprises and the ability to adapt are the way of successful Live Systems. Therefore, read these writings with an open mind and exercise and trust your intuition or conscience to tell you when these writings are "right."  

The whole point of drawing your attention to the "Live Systems" and "Dead Systems" distinction is to have you appreciate that it is imperative for your understanding of this book to have you adopt a holistic way of assimilating this endeavor theory and relinquish the habit of the reductionists pursuit of dissecting for understanding. Furthermore, your understanding will be thwarted by the criteria of the absence of counter-example for acceptance of a proposition. These are the tools of of "Dead Systems." Counter-examples and contradictions, contrary to much of our academic indoctrination, are often the well-spring of leaps forward. Heavier than air vehicles, quality for free, power reverts to the weakest (as in the American political system), painless operation (with the invention of anesthesia), and numerous others have made life longer, happier, and more pleasant. So abandon inappropriate tools and for "Live Systems" adopt "Live Tools." These require a holistic perspective and include paradigms, scenarios, experience, and adjustment of theory to specific situations (not the other way around). In the end, your gut counts more than your head.  

The Four Stages

The basic thesis of this book is that successful endeavors, even nation building (which we'll see in the case of China), go through four, not an arbitrary four, but a distinct and identifiable four, stages. It is possible to skip a stage, or even to adopt another order, but that course is far from optimal. And, as is the case with China's arrested development from the mid-1950s to the mid-1970s, the next stage can be avoided. In fact, among head strong, domineering entrepreneurs, this is a common tactic, but, again and alas, at a great cost to progress and prosperity, not to mention those directly involved.   

Let's get acquainted with the four stages by applying them to the general case of the life cycle of a company (or product line). ⁴  Acquaint yourself with the table below, if fact spend ten or fifteen minutes testing it. For example, check out the "STORMING" column. Does that seem to capture the essence of the entrepreneuring or innovative phase of a company (or a product development)? ⁵   The key point is that as you progress from one stage to the next, you must change how you operate!  Not just at the surface, but for best results, through and through. And, those fluent in either being specialists with strong biases in one or two of the stages or for those fluent in shifting from one stage to the next will make the greatest contributions.


  

Geyer, Robert, and Rihani, Samir, 2004. The Death of Order and the Dawn of Complexity, Pre-publication Chapter 1. In their forthcoming book at http://www.liv.ac.uk/polcomm/staff_pages/rgeyer/chap1.doc these authors clarify the epistomological distinctions of complex Systems. The one called "Live" above is called "Biotic". However, I've taken the liberty to broaden and blur the exact distinctions they intend in order to cover my topic easily and simply.

The second law is a statement that all processes go only in one direction, which is the direction of greater and greater degredation of energy, in other words, to a state of higher and higher entropy (a measure disorder). For example, if a glass shatters, no amount of waiting will ever see the glass suddenly re-assemble itself, although the glass intact and the shattered glass, up to some minute differences, have the same energy.
Source: Professor Belal E. Baaquie, National University of Singapore http://www.srikant.org/core/node10.html

When you observe the political debate over issues of "Live Systems" such as Global Warming, Global Outsourcing, or Middle East Tensions, you see the fallacy of linear, logical, zero-sum thinking of "Dead Systems." If we push these "Dead solutions" we are bound to experience the unintended consequences of inappropriate thinking and action.

There are similar frameworks for each level: Country, Company, Committee and Career. There also some esoteric or fanciful frameworks for: Civilization, Cranium, and Corpusles.

The "Success Measure" is a measure of your progress towards the Goal, and in the STORMING stage, it answers the question, "How goes the struggle?" Market Saturation means it's time to start offering different models by making adjustments to the original specifications.

MBTI refers to the Myers-Briggs personality Type Indicator based on the work of Carl Jung.

Taken from the Herrmann Brain Dominance Instrument based on the work of Roger Sperry.

Abernathy, W. M. and Utterback, J. M.,  1978. "Patterns of Industrial Innovation", Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press, Technology Review. Cambridge, MA, pp. 77-83.